Election 2006

As the election nears, students in Ferrel Guillory’s campaign reporting course have taken measure of the political environment across the South.  Campaign coverage can be accessed here.
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By Kendra D. Cotton

Signed into law by President George Bush on July 27, 2006, the renewal of the 1965 Voting Rights Act's temporary provisions lacked the controversy that accompanied its extension in 1982.  In the current issue of The Forum, a journal of applied research in contemporary politics, Katherine Tate attempts to answer the question, "Why so little fuss over renewal of the Voting Rights Act?" 

In "Black Politics, the GOP Southern Strategy, and the Reauthorization of the Voting Rights Act," Tate argues that given the solid political position of blacks in Congress, coupled with black public opinion, the administration recognized the potential minefield that it would be entering if it elected to play hardball with the legislation.  She adds that the immigration debate brewing at the time served to further ensure that GOP opposition would be held to a minimum.

For the full article see:
Katherine Tate (2006) "Black Politics, the GOP Southern Strategy, and the Reauthorization of the Voting Rights Act," The Forum: Vol. 4: No. 2, Article 1.
Available at: http://www.bepress.com/forum/vol4/iss2/art1
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The South - Still a Republican Stronghold

By Leroy Towns

The fact that the South as a region is a Republican stronghold is not exactly news. A trend of more than 30 years increasingly has placed Republicans in Southern statehouses, governor’s office and  congressional seats. There’s fresh evidence the trend remains strong, even as voters across the country turn to Democrats when asked whom they want in Congress.

The Pew Center for the People and the Press surveyed 1,507American adults (1,191 registered voters) September 6-10. On the so-called generic ballot, in which respondents were asked whether they intended to vote for a Republican or Democratic candidate, Democrats led 50 percent to 39 percent nationwide. That is a reversal of 2002 when Pew asked the same question and found Republicans leading 46 percent to 43 percent.

While Democrats gained on the generic ballot in all regions of the country, Republicans remained strongest in the South. The difference is striking. In the Northeast, Democrats gained 7 percentage points, in the Midwest 11 percent and in the West 6 points.

But Democrats gained only 4 percent in the South.

The data do not predict the 2006 elections, but it’s a strong indication Republicans are in far better shape in the South than in the rest of the country.

For the Pew Center’s report on this survey, click here.

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60 Days and Counting

By Andrew Holton

As we enter the final 60 days of the 2006 election cycle, SouthNow resumes regular updates on political developments and trends in the region.   

On Wednesday, September 6, Elon University and the Elon Poll sponsored a luncheon with political forecaster Charlie Cook.  Cook is a contributor to the National Journal and the principal for the Cook Political Report, a non-partisan newsletter analyzing federal elections. 

Cook’s central forecast for the November election was that Republican casualties in the U.S. House will be significant—potentially to the point of tipping the majority to the Democrats.  He compared the 2006 environment to that of 1982, 1986, and 1994, years when the national political winds blowing towards a specific party overrode a frequent tendency for Congressional elections to be locally focused. 

Cook pointed to four polling questions, the results of which led him to his conclusion:

1.  “Is the country moving in the right or wrong direction?”
   Since the beginning of 2006, the average response to this question, looking at all the major national polls, has had 30% of respondents believing the country is going in the right direction and 64% believing the country is going in the wrong direction.
   
2. Congressional job approval rating
   Since the beginning of August, the Congress’s job approval rating has averaged 26%.
   
3. The generic ballot test (i.e., If the election were held today, would you vote for a Democratic or a Republican candidate?) – Since the beginning of August, the average response to this question has had the Democrats ahead by 11.6 points.
   
4. Presidential job approval rating – Since the beginning of August, the President’s job approval rating has averaged 38%.  This is the lowest approval rating President Clinton reached in 1994 prior to the Republican take-over of Congress.

Democrats need to win 15 seats to gain a majority in the House.  According to Cook’s analysis, there are roughly 44 “competitive” House races.  Of those, 35 are in districts that lean Republican.  Twelve of these races are in Southern states, though Cook lists an additional six Southern races as ones to keep an eye on.  Of the 10 competitive races in Democratic districts, seven are in Southern states.  

When asked about his predictions for what a Democratic-controlled House would like, Cook suggested that Rep. Nancy Pelosi would be the likely Speaker.  He noted that while she is often portrayed as being on the extreme left, she actually resides in the relative center on the House Democratic ideological spectrum.  Yet, while she represents the middle of the Democratic party, she is still considerably more liberal than the Republican caucus center.  As such, Cook did not see House Democrats gaining enough seats to create a strong enough majority to alter the legislative agenda.   

Cook was skeptical that the Democrats would be successful in gaining control of the Senate.  He foresaw four Senate seats that Democrats had a strong chance to overtake, but he felt it was unlikely that the Republicans would lose the two additional seats needed to give Democrats a majority.  The only truly competitive Southern senate race is in Tennessee—Bob Corker (R) v. Harold Ford (D) —with the Virginia race between Sen. George Allen (R) and James Webb (D), being one to monitor.