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Voter Falloff Down the Ballot

North Carolina ballot design a hot topic in Presidential race

In the past week, articles have appeared in both The New York Times and The News and Observer examining North Carolina’s ballot design, which has been in use since the late 1960s. The ballot has received new attention in an election year in which North Carolina finds itself in the thick of a hotly contested Presidential election. 

The ballot, as required by legislative action, separates the presidential election from the elections for state offices. Thus, voters wishing to cast a straight-ticket ballot for candidates of a particular party must vote in the presidential election and, then separately, mark the spot designating a vote for all state party candidates on the rest of the ballot. 

Thad Beyle, professor of political science at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, has been tracking voter falloff on election ballots.  Voter falloff occurs as more votes are cast for races at the top of a ballot than those lower on the ballot. Many voters simply do not vote in elections with candidates they do not know or recognize.

As the data show, North Carolina presents a mixed picture. Often the presidential race receives the highest percentage of votes cast; sometimes races for governor and U.S. Senator lead the list. Only in 1984 – the year of the super-hot contest between Jim Hunt and Jesse Helms for the U.S. Senate – did all voters apparently cast a ballot in a single contest.

The charts below are drawn from Professor Beyle’s extensive data collection.  Each chart contains the top five races that received the most votes on North Carolina ballots in each presidential election year since 1984.

Update to 2008 Election Primer

Increase in voter registrations since October 4^th

Since NC DataNet went to press, North Carolina has experienced a significant surge in voter registrations.  This addendum attempts to put the latest registrations into perspective as well as to supplement and reexamine the analysis in issue 47 of NC DataNet.  Key findings include:

• Between January 1, 2008 and October 25, 2008, total voter registration increased by 592,452, or 9.6%.  That is more than the increase in registrants in the presidential election year of 2004 (January 1, 2004 to January 1, 2005).

• Between October 4^th and October 25^th, 170,244 new voters registered in North Carolina, an increase of 2.8 percent.

• In that same three-week period, African-American registered voters rose by 60,229, or 4.5%.  By comparison, the number of white registrants increased by 75,083, or 1.7%.  Hispanics had the largest percentage increase of 10.3% with a total increase of 6,758 new voters.

• Democrats added 93,954 registrants, while 47,126 new voters designated themselves as unaffiliated.

• Though Libertarians still account for a small percentage of total registered voters in North Carolina, they had the largest percentage increase in the three-week period.  Libertarians added 1,485 new voters for a 48.1% increase.

• The unknown factor in this analysis is how many of these new voters registered before the October 10^th deadline to be eligible to vote in this year’s presidential election.  Registration figures are reported from the counties to the State Board of Elections. It is difficult to know how many new registrations occurred before or after the Oct. 10 deadline. Also, one-stop registration and voting are allowed at the early-voting stations.

 *Tables show voter registration by party and race.  Each column shows total registrants and registrants as a percentage of total registered voters.

NC DataNet (Issue 47)--2008 North Carolina Election Primer

In advance of the November election, Issue 47 of NC DataNet examines North Carolina's shifting electorate and changing political landscape.  In 2008, North Carolina finds itself at the forefront of a historical presidential election.  The increased “metropolitization” of the state has called into question decades-old assumptions about Tar Heel voting trends.  This issue of DataNet analyzes recent voter registration in the context of previous elections.  Key points include:

• Voter registration in North Carolina is up more than 9 percent since late 2004.  However, despite excitement generated in this election cycle by the inclusion of greater numbers of new voters, the percentage increase in registered NC voters this year is less than the increase in the 2004 presidential election year.

• New voters are mostly Democratic and unaffiliated registrants. Unaffiliated voters are by far the fastest growing segment of registrants in the state. Their numbers are up by more than 18 percent since 2004. However, none of the major political designations—Democrat, Republican or unaffiliated—represent a majority of voters in the state. 

• African American voter registration in North Carolina has increased more than 12 percent since January 2008, outpacing the increase in white registration (5 percent). Hispanic voter registration jumped by 40 percent in the same period, but Latino voters still represent less than one percent of Tar Heel registrants.

• The outcome of the presidential contest in North Carolina will likely hinge largely on candidates’ ability to appeal to voters in the state’s burgeoning metropolitan areas. Fourteen of the state’s 100 counties accounted for 51 percent of presidential votes cast in 2004.

For comprehensive tables and more thorough descriptions of these trends, please click here to access the DataNet PDF.

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Spotlight:

Carolina Seminar on Coastalization

The UNC Program on Public Life hosted the third Carolina Seminar on Coastalization on March 7, an event that featured as a special guest former Louisiana Gov. Kathleen Babineaux Blanco. This seminar focused on the importance of disaster preparedness and of long-term recovery for economically distressed communities.  Discussion leaders included Bill Ross, secretary of the North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources; state Rep. Pricey Harrison; Gavin Smith, director of the new UNC-based Center of Excellence for the Study of Natural Disasters, Coastal Infrastructure and Emergency Management; and John Cooper of MDC Inc., a nonprofit research firm in Chapel Hill that works in the rural South.

During her visit to Chapel Hill, former Governor Blanco delivered the annual Charleston Alumni Lecture of the Center for the Study of the American South.  You may download the text of her lecture, “Lessons from Katrina,” here.

OUR PUBLICATIONS

The Program publishes three newsletter-type publications: NC DataNet on North Carolina Demographic and electoral trends; SouthNow on regional politics and issues; and Carolina Context white papers on North Carolina topics.  Current issues can be accessed below and archives of these publications can be accessed on this website.